The fallen against the risen. Newly fallen states are likely to make common cause against newly risen and old risen. They are likely to beckon states that never rose to join them. What does that mean in plain English? It means: newly fallen states, like Russia, the US, Turkey, in league with states that never rose, like Syria and Egypt, against those who are risen, and who are rising: the EU, Canada, Australia, and middle income countries, who were yesterday’s tigers, South Korea, China, and so on.
This is a tidy narrative, and I can understand how easy it is to surmise — considering the recency bias of the last decade’s crises, rising inequality, and prevailing demagoguery. Regardless, your forecasts simply aren’t supported by the data. For example, consider how demographics alone flip the US into your “rising” category and the EU into your “falling.”
You’re missing the forest through the trees. Don’t make the mistake of extrapolating a few, isolated, choice, cyclical anecdotes. Consider instead the entire quantum of secular currents.