This is a tidy narrative, and I can understand how easy it is to surmise — considering the recency bias of the last decade’s crises, rising inequality, and prevailing demagoguery. Regardless, your forecasts simply aren’t supported by the data. For example, consider how demographics alone flip the US into your “rising” category and the EU into your “falling.”
You’re missing the forest through the trees. Don’t make the mistake of extrapolating a few, isolated, choice, cyclical anecdotes. Consider instead the entire quantum of secular currents.