Down to two global tech superpowers (and India is their crown jewel)

Although the peleton is on their heels, Alibaba and Amazon lead the race

This is a game of scale. Alibaba owns China. Amazon owns America. Given Chinese geographic and structural advantages, Alibaba has a better chance to win the world of ecommerce (and tech supremacy)… but it all comes down to who wins India, which leaves an opportunity for others — like Tencent+JD or Google+Walmart — to make a comeback.

Important to note that while China has more than 4x the US population (1.34B vs 325M), the US has 4x the per capita income ($58k vs $15k PPP). Thus, rather neatly, each has a remarkably similar tangible addressable market. Although Chinese income growth should outpace America’s in the coming years, America’s demographic tailwind will provide a proportional counterbalance:

China’s demographics have peaked (“working-age population”)…
…while US, Indian, Latin, and African demographics are accelerating

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